TS400N
Winter Term 2005
Global Climate Change Simulation
The Next Steps Beyond the Kyoto
Protocol
The Setting
The
class exercise will simulate the next round of negotiations on global
climate change that began at the COP10 meetings in Buenos Aires in the fall
semester 2004. The objective of the talks will be to rough out the
next major step beyond the Kyoto Protocol in international efforts to
address the threat of climate change. This simulation will involve
discussions among ten countries, chosen to represent key players or interests
in the climate change negotiations. Click
here
for the country assignments.
Background
Ten
years of sometimes intense and contentious negotiations have led to the
adoption of two major climate change treaties. The first was the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which was put up
for signature at the Earth Summit in 1992. It called upon, but did
not require, the developed countries to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions to 1990 levels by 2000. The second agreement was the Kyoto Protocol
(Parties)
that was initially adopted in 1997, but only in 2001 were all the lingering
issues resolved at a meeting in Marrakesh, Morocco. The treaty would enter
into force upon its ratification by 55 nations representing 55% of the CO2
emissions of the Annex 1 countries.
Another major development
was the announcement by the Bush Administration in March 2001 that
it was rejecting the Kyoto Protocol and would not be implementing its
provisions, which included a commitment made by the Clinton Administration
to reduce US emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 7% below 1990 levels
by the period 2008-2012. The United States' representative to the
negotiations that followed in Bonn and Marrakesh affirmed that "the US
takes the problem of climate change very seriously" and suggested
that "our objective is a long-term solution that is environmentally effective,
economically sustainable, and fair.” In February 2002 the Bush administration
presented its proposal, which would allow American emissions to continue
to increase in relation to growth in the economy. (Go to usinfo.state.gov
for various texts on past and current U.S. government positions on the Kyoto
protocol.
The other nations participating in the climate change negotiations
debated whether to proceed with finalizing and ratifying the Kyoto Protocol
in the face of the US rejection of the treaty. Eventually they all
agreed to go ahead with ratification and implementation of the treaty,
although several key countries such as Australia, Japan, and Canada seemed
to be waivering in their resolve as long as the US was unwilling to become
a party. However, Japan and Canada both ratified the treaty in 2002.
Australia has yet to ratify the treaty, but appears to be moving closer to
ratification with the release of a modeling report showing that the economic
impacts of ratifying the accord are less damaging than not ratifying it. The European Union has recently reaffirmed its commitment
to reduce its GHG emissions by an average of 8%.Russia ratified the agreement
in November 2004, bringing the Kyoto protocol into force on February 16, 2005.
The global climate issue
took on greater urgency in 2001 following the widely publicized release
of the third report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
which confirms that human beings have already had a discernable impact
on the global climate, projects an increase in global average mean
temperatures during the 21st century of from 2.7 to 10.5 degrees F, and
warns of increasingly severe environment and social impacts throughout
the world. For a synthesis of the report, see http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/un/syreng/spm.pdf
2005 Ratification Status by
country http://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/kyoto_protocol/application/pdf/kpstats.pdf
The Sessions
The
simulation will run for three class sessions with the time allocated
as follows:
Session 1 -
Concurrent Meetings of Two Standing Committees (the country assignments
indicate which committee to attend)
Committee A - Emission Limits for Developed (Annex I) Countries
Issues: -Participation of the United States in the
Kyoto Protocol
-Schedule for the next phase of emission reductions
-Requiring emission reduction of developing countires
-New and additional sources of assistance to developing countries
Agenda:
-General
debate - all countries have five minutes each to present their
positions on the climate change issue and recommend international policies
Presentation, discussion
and adoption of specific resolutions
Committee B - Commitments by Developing Countries
Issues: -Establishing a schedule for limiting emissions
by
developing countries
-Special problems of small island nations
-Technical and economic assistance from developed (Annex I)
countries for curbing greenhouse gas emissions
-Assistance for adapting to the impacts of climate change
Agenda:
-General
debate - all countries have five minutes each to present their
positions on the climate change issue and recommend international policies
Presentation, discussion,
and adoption of specific resolutions
Session II - Plenary Session (all delegates present)
Caucuses (European countries, other developed countries
(developing countries, small island nations)
Reports from Committees A and B
Resolutions adopted in the committees will be introduced,
debated, and voted upon
Additional resolutions (as time permits)
Session III --
Plenary Session II
Coalitions
Several
groupings or blocs of countries have emerged in the climate change negotiations.
These are:
The Umbrella Group
- a group of developed, industrial countries led by the United States
which are not anxious to commit to substantial reductions of greenhouse
gas emissions within their countries. The United States, Australia,
and Canada are all high emission countries that worry about the economic
impacts of complying with Kyoto. Japan had already reduced its emissions
substantially and is left with relatively high cost options for further
reductions. These nations are generally in favor of unlimited use
of flexibility mechanisms, such as emission trading and joint implementation.
Canada and Japan have ratified the treaty, the U.S. and Australia have not.
United States, Australia, Canada, and Japan
The European Group
- comprised of the nations of the European Union and several other
European countries. They generally have much lower emission levels
per capita than the United States and other Umbrella Group countries.
They have grudgingly given in to the flexibility mechanism, but would
like to limit their use to ensure that the United States and other heavy
emitters will be required to achieve most of their emission reductions
within their countries.
France, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden
The Countries-in-Transition
(formerly of the Soviet bloc) - These countries haven't traditionally expressed
a strong concern about climate change, in part because they have been preoccupied
with their serious economic difficulties as they have been trying to
make the transition from communism to capitalism. However, as the
impacts of climate change become more apparent in that region, interest is
growing. Their primary motivator in the Kyoto Protocol stems largely from the prospect of income from
selling large emission credits (otherwise known as "hot air") as their
GHG emissions have plummeted well below their Kyoto targets. The
value of these emission credits will be significantly less if the US decides
not to implement the Kyoto Protocol and thus would not be in the markets
for these credits. Russia ratified the treaty in November, bringing it into
force in February 2005.
Russia, Ukraine, Czech Republic
Group of 77/China.
This is a long standing coalition of developing countries which argues
that the developed nations are primarily responsible for the problem
of climate changes, and thus should take the first significant steps address
the problem by curbing emissions. Thus, they have resisted any effort
to place the subject of limits on emissions by the developing countries
on the conference agenda. The group is marked by considerable diversity.
Generally, these nations are more likely than developed countries to
be adversely affected by climate change. Many small island nations
that are susceptible to rising sea levels associated with global warming
are among the members of this group. Oil producers are concerned
that controls on carbon emissions would seriously jeopardize their exports
of petroleum.
Bangladesh, Chad, China, Ghana, Egypt, Honduras, India , Kenya
Small island nations: Antigua and Barbuda, Kiribati, Maldives,
Tuvalu
Petroleum producers: Saudi Arabia
Preparation and Assignments
1.
Be sure to attend class sessions discussing the science and politics
of global warming. Use the research day to explore specific climate change
impacts for your country, paying particular attention to the global warming and sea level
findings for your assigned country or region.
2.
Carefully review reading assignments for the climate change topics (see
syllabus)-
NEW ADDITION! Tom Athanasiou
and Paul Baer, "Climate
Change After Marrakesh: Should Environmentalists Still Support
the Kyoto Protocol?," FPIF Discussion Paper #5, December 2001
(available on- line)
3.
Browse relevant websites
The following websites are recommended to all participants as background
on
the current state
of negotiations. Some are also very useful as research sites for
specific countries.
Guide
to the Climate Change Convention and its Kyoto Protocol
(UNFCCC)http://unfccc.int/resource/guideconvkp-p.pdf (MANDATORY READING!!!)
Climate Change Information Kit (UNFCCC/UNEP) http://unfccc.int/resource/iuckit/infokit_02_en.pdf
(EXTREMELY USEFUL)
Beginner's Guide to the Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC/UNEP) http://unfccc.int/resource/beginner_02_en.pdf (DITTO)(good for basics of the key international
treaties on climate change)
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Main
Website http://www.ipcc.ch/
IPCC Report:
Climate Change 2001:
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/index.htm
EPA
– World Climate Change Map and Information http://yosemite.epa.gov/OAR/globalwarming.nsf/content/GeographicPortalWorld.html?OpenDocument&Flash=yes
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
Report #1: Uncertainty In Climate Change Policy Analysis
Henry
D. Jacoby and Ronald G. Prinn (December 1994) http://web.mit.edu/globalchange/www/rpt1.html
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on World Food Supply
:Data Sets from a Major Crop Modeling Study by Cynthia Rosenzweig and Ana Iglesias http://sedac.ciesin.org/giss_crop_study/CCMquerytools.html 
* -- caution – great program if it works – use a very
fast computer!!!
Yahoo Global
Warming Page (highly recommended for recent newspaper articles
on climate change and the recent situation including the Marrakesh agreements
and the proposals of the Bush administration and international
reactions to them.
New
York Times Climate Page (highly recommended for recent articles
appearing in the New York Times on the subject of negotiations
on the Kyoto Protocol, refers to articles on the US rejection of the protocol
by the Bush Administration)
4. Research your country
and its past positions in the climate change negotiations
(click here for websites that may
be useful.) You need to have a very good
understanding of the implications of global warming for your country (bring
in all the scientific information you can find – think broadly about the
range of implications – agriculture, human health, disease, etc.) You will need to meet as a group outside of class
to compile research findings and evaluate your country.
5. Complete the Pre-Simulation
Worksheet and submit a copy during the first day of the simulation.
This worksheet asks you to indicate how your country (organization) may
be impacted by climate change, the positions it has taken in previous
negotiations, your objectives for the upcoming negotiations, and several
specific proposals that you plan to make during the simulation.
6.
Communicate via email with representatives of other countries (and/or with
others representing your country) regarding coalition formation, proposals,
etc.
7.
Draft up specific proposals for international agreements to present in the
negotiations. Have them ready to circulate.
During the Simulation
1.
Represent your country (organization) vigorously, but also in a diplomatic
manner (refer to other participants as "the distinguished delegate from
_______")
2.
Keep a very detailed journal recording your research efforts,
meeting times with group members, discussions with other groups, bowel
movements (just kidding…) etc. Your grade will in part (a large part) be determined
by this journal.
2.
Confer with representatives of other countries (organizations) as time permits.
3.
Communicate with other countries or other representatives from your country
via email between the two sessions.
4.
Be prepared to make brief presentations (five minutes or less)
on the positions of your country (organization)
Following the Simulation
1.
Complete the 6-8 page Climate Change Negotiations
Essay. Click here
for the specific assignment.