Lecture Twelve: Government Expenditure Analysis Part Two - Subsidies

 

Much of the growth in government spending over the past several decades has taken the form of subsidies for goods that are, or could be provided through the market mechanism.  Subsidies for education, food, child care, etc.  People would have bought them anyway (but perhaps not in the same quantity).

 

How do people respond to these subsidies?  This depends in part on what type of subsidy is used.

 

            Fixed-quantity subsidy – the government makes a certain quantity of a good available to a consumer at no cost or at a cost below the market price.  The quantity of the good being subsidized is beyond the control of the consumer – the government determines the quantity of the good made available.  (This is a form of in-kind subsidy, so called because the subsidy is linked to the consumption of a particular good).

Example:  the government may provide food stamps that a consumer can use to purchase $1,500 worth of food, but if more than $1,500 worth of food is desired, the consumer must pay for the additional amount at the full market price.  Here the subsidy applies only to a given quantity, $1,500 worth of food.

 

Another example:  public schools make available a certain quantity or quality of schooling, and if more is desired, it must be paid for by the consumer.  That is, if parents are not satisfied with the public school, they can send their kids to a private school at their own expense – or pay for additional tutoring, etc.

 

Fixed-quantity subsidies can have various effects on the consumption and well-being of recipients, depending on the size of the subsidy, the good being subsidized, and who pays for the subsidy.

Reduced Private Purchases

One major impact of a fixed-quantity subsidy is that is causes a reduction in out-of-pocket expenditures on the subsidized good.  Such a reaction on the part of consumers is intuitively obvious because if the government provides a good, consumers will need to purchase less on their own.

There are also situations in which the consumers reduce their out-of-pocket expenditures by an amount equal to the quantity provided by the government, so that their total consumption does not increase.

GRAPH: Fixed Quantity Subsidy - Reduction in Private Purchases

 

 

 

 

Analysis:  Consumer budget line relating the subsidized good (food) to other goods.

The budget line reflects the consumer’s income of $1,000 and the market price of food, $10 per unit. 

The government gives the consumer 30 units worth of food for free. 

Note:  if the government had given the consumer a cash transfer of $300, the cost to the government of the food subsidy, his budget line would be somewhat different.

The effect of this fixed-quantity subsidy on consumption opportunities is the same as a cash transfer, except that the dotted portion of the budget line is not available to the consumer.

This does assume that resale is not allowed – otherwise the consumer could sell some food for $10 per unit. (In reality - there probably is a large black market in food stamps, for example).

The consumer’s exact response depends on how the budget line is affected and on his preferences concerning food and other goods.  If we assume that food and other goods are normal goods, then we know that after receiving the subsidy he will choose a point involving more consumption of both (he consumes 50 units of food and $800 worth of other goods.)  Recall that at the original equilibrium the consumer purchases 40 units of food; after the subsidy, his consumption of food has increased by only 10 units, even though the government provides 30 units of food.  His private food purchases have fallen from 40 to 20 in response to the subsidy, but total consumption has risen to 50. 

Note also that the subsidy has allowed the consumption of other goods to increase.  Before the subsidy, he spent $400 on food and $600 on other things; after the subsidy he spends $200 of his own income on food (and receives a $300 subsidy) and has $800 left for other goods and services. 

A reduction in private purchases should be expected with a fixed-quantity subsidy.

In addition, as long as the quantity provided by government (30) is less than the consumer would purchase if given the subsidy in the form of cash (50 units would be consumed with an unrestricted cash transfer), this type of subsidy is equivalent in its effects to a cash transfer.

Taxes To Finance the Subsidy

But now we have to consider the taxes to finance the subsidy.  There are two cases:

First, someone other than the subsidy recipient may pay the required taxes.  In that case, our previous analysis is complete, at least insofar as the effect on the recipient is concerned.

Second, the recipient of the subsidy may also pay taxes to finance the subsidy, just as many families pay taxes to finance the schools their children attend.  In this case, it is worthwhile to consider the combined effects of the tax and subsidy on the consumer’s choice and well-being.

Assume that the tax is equal to the subsidy ($300 in our case).  This would not normally be true for all consumers of course, on average the tax must equal the subsidy (if a tax is used to finance the program).  Some would pay less, others would pay more than they receive in the subsidy.  But let’s assume each pays what they receive to start wit

In this case the budget curve would shift in when the consumer pays the tax, then shift back out again when the subsidy is received.  The combined tax-expenditure policy leaves the budget line completely unchanged, except for making it impossible to consume along the dotted potion of the original budget line.  If the consumer would not have chosen a point on that portion of the budget line anyway, he would have ended up purchasing the same quantities of food and other goods.

These conclusions suggest that many government expenditure programs may have little or no effect on the allocation of resources.

However:  we have made a lot of assumptions.  When these assumptions are changed, the outcomes change.  Allocative and distributive effects of a fixed-quantity subsidy might include:

1.       Over-consumption: If the consumer receives the subsidy and pays no taxes – this analysis indicates that a cash transfer and a fixed quantity subsidy are not different.  But there are times when a fixed-quantity subsidy will increase consumption by more than a cash transfer.  This happens when the quantity provided by the government is greater than the consumer would purchase if he had cash rather than the in-kind subsidy.  If he is given cash equal to more than 40 units of food (which he is buying before the subsidy) he might prefer to use some of that cash on other goods and would be better off with the cash instead of the food (from his point of view anyway).  He over-consumes the subsidized good.

2.       Under-consumption:  It is often taken for granted that a fixed-quantity subsidy will increase consumption, but we have seen that in some cases it may lead to the same level of consumption as a cash transfer does.  In addition, there are cases in which this type of subsidy will actually reduce consumption!  This can occur when it is very costly, or impossible, for the consumer to supplement the quantity of the good provided by government.

Example:  Suppose the subsidized good is housing – and the government offers a family a two-bedroom apartment at no cost.  The family may prefer a three-bedroom apartment and might be willing to pay the difference in cost between a two-bedroom and a three-bedroom apartment to obtain a larger apartment.  The way the program is administered, however, this option is not available.  The family cannot accept the government two-bedroom apartment and, by paying the cost of an extra bedroom, convert it into a three-bedroom apartment.  Instead they must either accept the two-bedroom apartment of forgo the subsidy altogether and pay the entire cost of housing themselves.  It is quite possible that the family will choose the two-bedroom apartment when they government foots the bill rather than the three-bedroom apartment they would have chosen in the absence of the subsidy.

Housing is costly and “lumpy” – not easily divided into small units.  Therefore it makes it difficult, if not impossible, to supplement.

Two studies offer evidence: 

John Kraft and Edgar Olsen studied a sample of public housing tenants and estimated that 49 percent of the families were consuming less housing than if they had been given the subsidy in cash.

Sam Peltzman studied the effects of state-supported colleges and universities on the consumption of higher education.  He found that the expenditures per student would be higher in the absence of subsidies to higher education, which supports our contention that some fixed quantity subsidies result in under-consumption.  Some students went to in-state public schools when they otherwise would have gone to out of state private schools, for example.  Peltzman also found that more students attended college as a result of the subsidies.  Thus, some students consume less schooling and others (those who would not have attended college without the subsidy) consume more as a result of state support of institutions of higher education.

3.  Redistribution of Income:  We have seen that the fixed-quantity subsidies can increase, reduce, or have no effect on the consumption of the subsidized good.  The  exact outcome probably varies widely from one subsidy to another and from one consumer to another.  It should be pointed out that fixed-quantity subsidies often serve to redistribute income to certain groups. 

For example, food stamps, housing subsidies, and Medicaid subsidies are concentrated exclusively on low-income household and therefore act to increase their real incomes.  In addition, even though public schools and social security (subsidized retirement pensions) are more widely distributed, when account is taken of the taxes that finance them, we find that many families gain on balance, while other families lose; income is effectively redistributed.  In general, it is plausible to suppose that the way such subsidies serve to redistribute income may be more important in an overall evaluation than their possibly minor impacts on consumption patterns.

Excise Subsidy

This is a fundamentally different form of subsidy – the government pays part of the per unit price of a good but allows the quantity of the good to be determined by consumer purchases. 

Example:  suppose the government decided to pay the consumer $5 for each unit of housing consumed.  The quantity and, hence, the cost to the government depend on the level of consumer purchases and so are not fixed by the nature of the policy.  This is an excise subsidy.

Other examples:  some welfare programs operate as excise subsidies, but maybe the most common examples are found in special provisions of the tax laws – like we have already discussed.

There are two types of excise subsidies: 

Ad valorem excise subsidies:  the government pays a certain percentage of the per unit cost of some good or, what amounts to the same thing, a specific percentage of the consumer’s total expenditures on the good.

Per unit excise subsidies:  the government pays a certain amount for each unit of the good consumed, as in the housing subsidy mentioned earlier. 

The allocative and distributive effects of both types of excise subsidies are nearly identical.  So let’s look at the per unit excise subsidy.

Allocative Effects:  Market Perspective

Industry Subsidy:  Let’s assume that the food industry is to be subsidized and that the industry is a constant cost industry (to make our lives easier) . . . and price competition among firms.

GRAPH:  Allocative Effects of An Excise Subsidy (Market)

 

 

 

The initial price and quantity are $10 and Q1.  Now suppose that an excise subsidy of $4 per unit of food is to be extended to the industry.  The subsidy could be paid either to the firms or to the consumers; we will initially assume that it is paid to the firms.

This reduces the firm’s production costs by $4.  Thus, the effect can be shown as a downward shift in the supply curve.  The industry has an incentive to expand output, and that leads to a lower price for consumers. 

The ultimate effect of this subsidy, even though it is paid to the firms, is to reduce the price to consumers by $4, the amount of the per unit subsidy.  (Note:  if this is an increasing cost industry, the price to consumers will not fall by exactly the amount of the subsidy).

As a result, consumers are confronted with a $6 price, and at the lower price consumption increases to Q2. 

With an excise subsidy, consumption and output increase.

However, we should remember that even though the supply curve shifts by the amount of the subsidy, it is clear that the subsidy does not reduce the true cost of production.  Subsidies do not reduce the marginal social cost of production – (given by the original supply curve).  They just reduce the net costs to participants in the subsidized market by having someone else (the taxpayers) bear part of those costs. 

Consumer Subsidy:  An excise subsidy can also be granted directly to consumers rather than to firms.  That, in fact, is the way various tax subsidies operate.  Suppose that consumers receive $4 from the government for each unit they purchase; the firms are not subsidized.  The subsidy then increases the per unit price that consumers are willing to pay to firms.

So consumers are now willing to pay $14 for the good at Q1.  In other words, the demand curve will shift up by $4.  Again, producers end up receiving $10 per unit – just as they did when the subsidy was paid to them.  Also consumers are now paying a net price of only $6 – the remaining $4 is the subsidy and output has again moved to Q2.

Thus we reach the surprising conclusion that an excise subsidy has the same effect, regardless of whether consumers or producers are subsidized.  IN both cases the price of $10 is received by producers and a price of $6 is paid by consumers!  So we can analyze the subsidy either as an upward shift in the demand curve or as a downward shift in the supply curve.

Over-consumption:  Note that the expansion of output represents over-consumption by the consumers.  The only reason the consumers purchase the additional output is because someone else is bearing part of the cost.

Is there an efficiency or welfare loss then?  Would consumers, without the subsidy, prefer resources used elsewhere?  The subsidy results in an output level where the marginal benefit to consumers is less than the marginal social cost of production.

Allocative Effects:  Individual Perspective

Greater insight of allocative effects from an individual perspective.  The excise subsidy lowers the price of food, so the budget line rotates and becomes flatter.

 GRAPH:  Allocative Effects of an Excise Subsidy, (Individual)

 

 

 

 

The new equilibrium represents over-consumption:  the artificially low price encourages consumers to purchase more food and less of other goods, and this is inefficient.  This inefficiency can be demonstrated by assuming that the consumer is given the subsidy in cash rather than as a subsidy that lowers the price of food. 

 The cash transfer would produce a parallel movement of the budget line.  This means that the consumer could still choose the consumption he wanted if given the subsidy in the form of cash.  The consumer might prefer to purchase less food and more of other goods.  The consumer would be better off with an unrestricted cash transfer.  Therefore, compared to cash, the excise subsidy process a welfare cost:  the consumer is on U2 with the excise subsidy but can reach U3 by consuming a different combination of goods of the same total cost with a cash transfer.

             Taxes:  If the consumer doesn’t pay the tax or does pay the tax to finance the subsidy – it doesn’t matter – the excise subsidy produces a welfare cost by artificially stimulating food consumption in both cases.  The only difference is that the welfare cost associated with the subsidy when others pay the taxes reflects the fact that the consumers would be better off consuming less food with a cash transfer (could reach a higher U curve).  When the consumers pay the taxes themselves, the welfare cost reflects the fact that consumers would be better off consuming less food without any tax or subsidy.  The nature of the welfare cost is the same; an artificially lower price stimulates too much consumption. 

 Distributive Effects

 Who benefits and who loses from a subsidy depend on the exact type and size of subsidy (as well as the distribution of the tax burden). 

 Where the benefits from a particular subsidy accrue depends on the reaction of the market affected by the subsidy.  In our earlier analysis we assumed a constant cost industry – so the $4 subsidy went to the consumer as either a direct subsidy or lower price ($10 to $6).  But with an upward-sloping supply curve, this is not the case.  Part of the subsidy would go to the supplier.

 For example, if the subsidy does, on balance, increase consumption, this reflects an effective increase in demand.  Coupled with an upward-sloping supply curve, a fixed-quantity subsidy that increases demand will increase price.  This relationship may explain some of the support by educators (such as teachers’ unions and colleges and universities) for subsidies to education or by construction unions for housing subsidies.

 Or the if the subsidy is given directly to the industry, the same result occurs – with an upward-sloping supply curve.

 GRAPHS

 

 

 

Taxation and the Analysis of Expenditures

In evaluating the efficiency effects of government spending, it should be kept in mind that the fundamental issue is whether the spending program together with its financing method leads to a more or less efficient resource allocation.  Normally, taxes will provide the funds that are spent, and we need to consider somewhat more carefully how taxation is integrated into the analysis of an expenditure program.

 Central point:  every dollar the government spends imposes a cost on taxpayers of more than a dollar.

 There are several reasons for this.

 1.       Administrative costs associated with collected tax revenues. 

2.       Compliance costs borne by taxpayers – the time and resources required to comply with the tax laws. 

3.       Probably more important – resource allocation distortions – due to less efficiency, these costs are very important but often over-looked.

 These costs (and possibly others) can be combined and referred to as the marginal welfare cost of taxation.  There meaning is, as already stated, that each dollar spent by the government has a cost of greater than $1 on taxpayers.

 For example, if marginal welfare cost is 25% of revenue, than each dollar spent costs the public $1.25 -- $1 of which is the direct cost of the revenue and the other $0.25 of which is the marginal welfare cost.

 These costs have important implications for evaluating the efficiency of expenditure policies.  We have basically ignored them in our analysis – thereby, for example, our analysis makes consumers better off than they actually are (since we have ignored a cost).